U.S. sees slowest population growth since pandemic due to sharp drop in immigration

Ron S. Jarmin, Deputy Director and Chief Operating Officer
Ron S. Jarmin, Deputy Director and Chief Operating Officer
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Population growth in the United States has slowed, with an increase of only 1.8 million people, or 0.5%, between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025, according to new estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.

This marks the slowest rate of population growth since the early COVID-19 pandemic period in 2021, when growth was just 0.2%. The slowdown follows a notable rise in growth during 2024, when the country added 3.2 million people for a rate of 1.0%, which was the fastest annual increase since 2006.

Christine Hartley, assistant division chief for Estimates and Projections at the Census Bureau, said: “The slowdown in U.S. population growth is largely due to a historic decline in net international migration, which dropped from 2.7 million to 1.3 million in the period from July 2024 through June 2025. With births and deaths remaining relatively stable compared to the prior year, the sharp decline in net international migration is the main reason for the slower growth rate we see today.”

All four census regions experienced slower population growth or accelerated declines over this period except Montana and West Virginia.

The Midwest stood out as all its states gained population between July 2024 and July 2025. After previous years of decline or minimal gains, Midwest states saw solid increases: about 259,938 people in 2023; 386,231 in 2024; and another gain of roughly 244,385 this past year. Slight increases in natural change (births minus deaths) contributed to these gains.

Marc Perry, senior demographer at the Census Bureau stated: “From July 2024 through June 2025, the Midwest also saw positive net domestic migration for the first time this decade. And while the net domestic migration was a relatively modest 16,000, this is still a notable turnaround from the substantial domestic migration losses in 2021 and 2022 of -175,000 or greater.”

Ohio shifted from losing more than thirty-two thousand residents through domestic migration in 2021 to gaining nearly twelve thousand by mid-2025; Michigan followed a similar trend.

South Carolina’s population grew by nearly eighty thousand people (a rise of about one-and-a-half percent), driven mainly by an increase of over sixty-six thousand from net domestic migration—though this was down slightly from last year’s pace. Idaho and North Carolina also posted strong percentage gains due mostly to domestic migration increases. Texas continued rapid growth thanks both to natural change and international arrivals despite fewer newcomers than previously reported; Utah’s growth came primarily from births exceeding deaths.

Nationally, between July 1 of each year for the most recent period tracked by these estimates (July 1, 2024–July 1 2025), total U.S. population reached approximately 341.8 million—a much smaller gain than during the previous twelve months when it increased by one percent (or about three point two million). The principal cause cited for this deceleration is reduced levels of net international migration—falling more than fifty percent year-over-year—with projections suggesting further decreases into next year.

Natural change (the difference between births and deaths) remained steady at around half a million nationwide but remains lower than figures seen before COVID-19; it had been as high as about one point one million annually in recent years before dropping during pandemic disruptions.

All four major U.S regions grew but at slower rates compared with prior years: The South’s population increase fell below one percent for only the second time since early pandemic disruptions; Northeast states saw their overall annual growth drop sharply as well.

Only five states lost residents during this timeframe: California, Hawaii, New Mexico, Vermont and West Virginia recorded declines while others continued modest expansion or stabilized after earlier drops.
More states now have positive natural change—thirty-three plus Washington D.C.—than during pandemic lows but fewer than seen historically.
Net international migration declined across every state compared with last year but remained positive everywhere; Florida led all states followed by Texas and California.
Thirty-one states recorded more incoming than outgoing movers domestically—up slightly on last year’s tally—with Alabama surpassing Florida on that measure for this period due to sharper reductions among those relocating within Florida itself.

Puerto Rico’s population fell again—by almost eighteen thousand—to just over three point two million residents amid ongoing negative natural change (more deaths than births) combined with renewed outward movement after briefly seeing net arrivals last year.

Recent improvements were made to how international migration data are calculated using new administrative sources at subnational levels along with updated short-term projection methods; further details can be found on Random Samplings blog entries published by the Census Bureau.

The Population Estimates Program compiles annual changes using birth/death records alongside tracking movements into/out of each area since completion of the most recent decennial census. This release includes updated totals covering all fifty states plus D.C., Puerto Rico and voting-age populations.
A further update scheduled for March will provide metropolitan/micropolitan breakdowns as well as county-level detail under embargo before public release; full scheduling information is available via the Census Bureau’s website.

With each yearly update comes revision across all previous years’ estimates back to the latest census date so comparisons should be made only within matching vintages rather than across different versions due to periodic methodology updates.



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